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THE ELECTIONS ARE all but done and dusted (no one mention Ireland South) – so what did we learn?
For a start, that transfers don’t always go where you expect them to, and exit polls aren’t gospel, especially if turnout is in doubt.
NB: An obvious list of winners and losers would be those elected vs those who weren’t -this is a bit more nuanced.
Saoirse McHugh
It’s quite a feat to be a star of a national election and to not get elected.
But that’s what Saoirse McHugh did – after appearing on RTÉ’s Prime Time just three days before the election, she won over voters who hadn’t known of her before.
At one point during that RTÉ debate, Peter Casey tried to speak over McHugh, who responded by saying: “Millionaires scapegoating migrants is an old trope and it’s boring.”
In the end, the Achill native got 50,000 first preference votes, and had 61,000 by the time she was eliminated in Count 11. Her appearance on Prime Time is thought to have also boosted the Greens’ Ciarán Cuffe’s vote in Dublin, where he topped the poll.
With a general election on the cards for later this year, and after her comments pledging to quit the party if they went into coalition with either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, all eyes are on where McHugh will focus her political capital next.
Local media
We can easily take for granted the extent of the wide network of dedicated local media that are dotted across the country – but they’re hard to miss on count day.
Videoing the newly elected being hoisted onto shoulders, interviewing those who missed out about what went wrong, and following the nail-biting recounts that resulted in some councillors being elected by a margin of just one, they were the life-blood that pumped out updates in an seemingly endless election count.
A thank you from all national and Dublin-based journalists, and for those living in the capital that could watch updates from their home county (hello, East Coast FM).
Naomi Long
History was made when Naomi Long was elected as the first non-partisan MEP for Northern Ireland. Three women also occupy Northern Ireland’s three MEP seats for the first since the region became part of the European ideal.
Traditionally, Northern Ireland’s MEPs have been held by two unionists and one nationalist. The European Parliament had originally given the region two seats, but added a third so that nationalists would be represented.
Long’s win is a massive boon for the Alliance Party – giving citizens in Northern Ireland that don’t want to play a part in the partisan politics a chance to be represented, particularly with Brexit looming over the horizon.
Maria Walsh
Maria Walsh / Twitter
Maria Walsh / Twitter / Twitter
We laughed at that Tamagotchi campaign video, but it – coupled with the not-so insignificant wave of support for Mairéad McGuinness – worked in the end, and Maria Walsh finished in the third seat in the Midlands-NorthWest area (ahead of incumbent MEP Matt Carthy).
Despite an uninspiring Prime Time debate performance, Walsh held a widespread campaign where she vowed to represent the young generation that mobilised to campaign in favour of marriage equality, the Repeal the Eighth campaign, as well as struggling farmers and resource-starved communities in rural Ireland.
Rumours are abound that she might not even finish her five-year term in the European Parliament, as Varadkar might summon her to run for the Dáil in the not-too-distant general election.
Peter Casey
Finishing as a runner up in the Midlands Northwest constituency, Casey did far better in the final result than the RTÉ exit poll suggested. More people voted for him than was expected, even though they weren’t happy to admit it, even under anonymity.
Casey has now failed to be elected in two elections in the space of a year, but has finished on stronger numbers than most people would have expected.
He has said that he’s now setting his sights on the Dáil – will he win that round?
Fianna Fáil
Fianna Fáil had a mixed election.
Its councillor candidates soared ahead in the local elections, making gains on the significant chunk of local authority seats they had previously held. Fine Gael also did well, but lost its hold in Dublin, which will worry the party leadership slightly.
In the European elections, Fianna Fáil didn’t fare as it would have liked. It ran five MEP candidates, and just two of them have been elected – one of whom, Barry Andrews, got the Dublin Brexit seat, which he can’t take up for some time.
Ahead of the election, Fianna Fáil was asked did it fear Peter Casey would suck votes away from its two candidates in the Midlands-NorthWest area, to which Mícheál Martin answered he wasn’t worried. After Casey finished well ahead of both those candidates, you’d have to say they probably should have been concerned.
Exit polls
The exit polls got it a bit wrong, especially on Saoirse McHugh winning a seat in the Midlands-NorthWest and the extent to which Ciarán Cuffe was ahead of the other candidates in Dublin (pre election polls had him at 11%, the exit poll put him at 23%, and the actual first preference result was 17%).
They also severely underestimated Luke Ming Flanagan and Peter Casey – but why?
Richard Colwell, of Red C Research, which conducted the exit poll for RTÉ, said the low turnout in Dublin was to blame.
“Dublin didn’t turn out, its turnout was lower than the rest of the country. There were only 22% of the electorate’s votes cast in Dublin, versus 26% in the rest of the country.”
The highest turnout was in Connaught and Ulster, where it reached over 50%. Colwell said that if turnout isn’t evenly spread or doesn’t match trends, then it skews the exit poll – and there isn’t much that can be done about that.
“We can’t predict turnout,” he said.
Eoghan Murphy
Eoghan Murphy wasn’t meant to be the story.
But in a week where the election and ‘swinggate’ took over almost every conversation, his comments that co-living was an “exciting” opportunity for people still stuck.
Two days in a row, in the height of the counting on Saturday and Sunday, protesters gathered at the RDS and formed a circle around Murphy to call for his resignation and to chant “stick your co-living up your arse”. A clear message if ever there was one.
Sinn Féin
Well, I don’t think anyone would argue with this ranking.
Sinn Féin members themselves will be the first to admit that they had a bad election result. It lost 78 council seats, and lost two of its three MEP seats in Ireland (notwithstanding the recount in Ireland South, and Martina Anderson being reelected in the North).
Added to that, a number of councillors that resigned from the party in recent years, some of whom citing alleged bullying and other issues to do with management within the party, were reelected as independents.
The party leadership has said that it couldn’t get its members out to vote in this election; Lynn Boylan told RTÉ that Sinn Féin voters “couldn’t be bothered” going out to vote, and that the same level of anti-austerity “anger” wasn’t there. But looking at the Eoghan Murphy protest, you’d have to wonder if that was the only issue.
Interestingly, Solidarity-People Before Profit also fared badly in the elections, losing over half their total councillors, suggesting that the far-left voter’s support went elsewhere in this election, or just didn’t cast their vote at all.
Great to see SF and the always angry PBP doing so poorly. The Irish economy is continuing to do well and the appeal of the anti everything political groups is lessening.
@Jurgen Remak: S.F are the liberal bandwagon Marxist party now. They lost most voters when they start going down the feminist pro Islam road.
@Jurgen Remak: record homelessness and record numbers of people on hospital trolleys suggest differently, the propaganda leading up to the election was sickening. By the looks of it ff would fair quite well if a general election was called by the end of the year.
@Jurgen Remak: Do you call the continuance of the transfer of wealth from the public to the billionaires and multi millionaires, ‘continuing to do well’..?
@Jurgen Remak: Why then did FG only win back 20 seats out of the 105 seats they lost in 2014 Local elections?
Why are you ignoring ongoing National emergencies in homelessness, housing and health,etc?SF&other Opposition politicians constantly highlight these serious issues affecting the public!
@Nuala Mc Namara:
Why don’t you try putting out the complete picture Nuala rather than cherry picking the numbers that suit your argument?
The 105 seats lost by FG in 2014 were largely gains from 2009 when, after the recession started FFs vote collapsed (they lost 160), a trend that continued into the GE in 2011. By 2014 FF had recovered, again seen in the GE of 2016.
Before 2009 FF had an element of centre left vote, especially in Dublin, they lost that to lab by 2011, it moved on to SF in 2016 and it looks like it’s on the move again.
@Patrick Nolan: Are you Jurgen Remak?He commented ‘the economy is continuing to do well’s so I asked HIM why did FG only win back 20 seats out of the 105 seats they lost in 2014 Local elections!
By the way ‘the complete picture’ includes acknowledging the National emergencies in homelessness, housing and health affecting the public!!
@Nuala Mc Namara:
So you post a comment on a public forum and other people are not allowed to comment on it??
SORRREEE!!!
Your asking why FG only gained 20 seats, can I ask you, why did SF lose 80???
@Patrick Nolan: I was interested in hearing Jurden Remak’s reply to my comment to him,so no need for you to be childish&twist that to suit your agenda!
I don’t know why SF lost 78 seats of the 105 they won in 2014 Local elections,they had 59 seats before 2014 that ,now they have 81 seats.
The writing was on the wall for S/F, when they did not take their seats in the House of Commons, and fight for Irelands case. If they had, their vote would have been very different.
@Matthew Roche: The SF vote wouldn’t have made any difference to the present outcome because of the make up of the British parliament. The collapse of the institutions in Northern Ireland and the current stand off with the DUP in getting them back on track, would probably have had more of an impact than events across the water. They were voted in on the basis of abstention and have stuck to that principle. The electorate here are crying out for a third party to put their trust in. Labour were that party until they sold their soul by backing the FG way. SF took their place and did well in the previous elections. This time around the public were given a new idea that green is the way forward. Green policies for sure.. but remember what happened the last time they held the balance of power.
@Paul Linehan: They May have been voted in up North due to the basis of abstention, but the continuation of that stance has damaged their vote down here.
@Steve O’Reilly: Their vote in the British parliament wouldn’t have changed anything. I find it amusing that Trump is glorified for keeping election promises, but the same doesn’t apply to SF…. I’m not a supporter of the party. But believe in giving credit where credit is due.
@Matthew Roche: So the writing is on the wall since the 1918 election?
@Steve O’Reilly: Mary Lou damaged their vote, old school Republicans wouldn’t vote for abortion,she excluded the older SF supporters and finished her own career bandwagon jumping
The opinion polling industry is a lucrative one. Its findings often get banner headlines. Its expensive, privately commissioned opinion polls are scrutinised meticulously by strategy committees of mainstream political parties. I suggest that the opinion poll industry be scrutinised deeply and objectively by investigative journalists.
Now with the Green influence the tax payer will foot the bill.
@KJmadra.:
The Daft Greens have No Carbon Tax or VAT on Jet Fuel but tax people trying to get to work. They shot our petrol cars which have less carbon emissions if owned for 12 years than electric cars changed every 3 years and forced us into dirty noxious diesels. Now they want to shoot the cows in the fields!
People – Bring your brains to the Polling Booths … say 38,000 who signed the Car Carbon Tax Petition. https://www.change.org/p/unfair-irish-car-tax-law
@Neuville-Kepler62F: Petrol engine’s have higher Co2 than diesels, Co2 is what’s bad for the atmosphere, the nox from diesels is what’s bad for people in built up places. new euro emissions 6 diesels have reduced that down alot that they won’t be banned from built up areas. Euro emissions 7 and onwards will be a game changer.
.Let’s have general election . FFG surely have no fear now .
@Willy: Exactly. They will romp home
Who would vote for the Greens lol
@Orla Smith: Quite a lot of people judging by the result.
Maria Walsh is a total spoofer. Watched their election speeches – Ming and Carthy leagues better, their speeches focusing on rural Ireland and Brexit, while Walsh’s focused on the need for more “female farmers”. Car crash. Why do we keep electing such tossers?
@Jason Genovani:Randy farmers thinking they can straighten her out?
Sitting on the fence, and more often than not, shouting abuse from the sidelines, was always going to eventually hit Sinn Fein.
“Loaves and fishes” policies, with free everything with less taxation, is the SF mantra.
People are not fools!
@sean de paore:
1)Give a link to Sign Fein’s ‘free everything’ policies &’less taxation’ policies!
2)Sein Fein voted in Dail against Government backing Apple appeal!
@sean de paore: Remember when Pearse Doherty pointed out that Fine gaels maths were out by 2 billion? That was gas, #fiscalspace
Why are comments closed concerning the resignation of a blueshirt councillor in Donegal after being elected last week ,If it had been a Sinn Fein candidate it would be open season.
@Donal Desmond:
If you bothered to read that article you would have discovered he is starting legal proceedings, hence no comments.
@Patrick Nolan: That still wouldn’t stop the media and blueshirt/ F.F. from having a field day if it was Sinn Fein.
@Donal Desmond:
The whole world is out to get me!!!!!
@Donal Desmond: FG got played, party rep overstepped, now going to court
WHY is there so much attention to the Greens……………..They did NOT do well. $5 of Councillors and 1 MEP does not make a F$%king Green wave………………….I am sick of hearing this BS
@M Stuart: the big winner from the european elections is some wan out west who failed to get elected according to this publication, seemingly unaware of the concept of winning in electoral politics.
Who would vote for the Greens lo
l
Vote for any right-wing parties the looney lefties need to be shown the door!
@Orla Smith: But that would only leave the looney righties, with looney policies like Donald Trump….
@John O’Hara: Don’t think Trump is running in Ireland.
FF and FG got 25% each. Turnout was 50%. If the whole electorate came out and voted, the FF and FG support could really be as low as 12 – 13% each. This means that 75% of the electorate are looking for sombody else to vote for. Just one new party that can get 15% of the electorates support and FFG would be toast. Yet mehole and leo want you to believe there is nobody but FF and FG and their support is closer to 50% each. Somebody please stand up because these FFG idiots are doing nothing but making themselves rich while in leinster house.
@Adrian: nonsense.
Your numbers are just based on your own personal bias.
Claiming 75% of people just want somebody else to vote for has zero data to back it up.
First off we never have 100% turnout, some people are just lazy and would rather blame everyone else then exercise their right to vote.
You have no figures to backup who such people would vote for if they did get off their arse and vote
@Adrian: with your genius logic you could equally argue if everyone voted they would have about 37% of the votes each… your assuming everyone who didn’t vote would not vote ff or fg which is incorrect
@Barry Somers: yes its analysis to the limits. But, you’re bias is in saying people are too lazy to vote. We should be asking, why was turnout so low? why did some people decide not to vote? Why don’t we have compulsary voting like the aussies do? Does low turnout skew the results in favour of FFG? What are the real political views of the electorate in this country? And can we achieve politicial representation that represents the majority of the people on this country rather than the 30% that FFG represent?
@Adrian: I can’t believe you took the time to write out such tosh.
Let me give you the alternative numbers…. (equally as bad as yours). 50% of people didn’t bother vote…. That means they are generally happy with the way things are as they didn’t feel motivated enough to go out to vote for any kind of change. So if you add that 50% to the 50% of actual voters who voted for FG or FF….. That means they have 75% support.
Complete garbage of course…. But just as valid as your own calculations.
@Adrian: Very wishful thinking there Adrian. Let’s look at it this way. The turnout for the locals in 2014 was almost identical to 2019, only 1.4% of a difference. The thing is this time when the voters came out to vote they had wised up to Sinn Fein and Solidarity/PBP when the collapse in their vote. You see being anti everything only gets you so far.
@Adrian™: you don’t think much of my analysis, you should have heard finance minister donoghues interview on newstalk during the week. It was pathetic. He looked really amateur and small with his percentages and figures when all the interviewer had to say was, 2 billion, 3 billion wasted, and donogue saying we saved 20 million on this and 50 million on that.
@Barry Somers: A lot of people don’t vote as they don’t see anyone to represent them, Politicians are seen as either attention seekers or sleazy gobshytes. Under 30s are angry that they can’t get houses and most of their mates are in Canada or Australia, those between 30 and 60 are angry because no matter what they do they can’t get ahead, and the old people are basically told to f off and die. Can you see why many don’t see any point in voting.
Who the hell would vote for the Greens lol
@Orla Smith: their core constituency…
Fool me twice ….
The Daft Greens have No Carbon Tax or VAT on Jet Fuel but tax people trying to get to work. They shot our petrol cars which have less carbon emissions if owned for 12 years than electric cars changed every 3 years and forced us into dirty noxious diesels. Now they want to shoot the cows in the fields!
Bring your brains to the Polling Booths … say 38,000 who signed the Car Carbon Tax Petition. https://www.change.org/p/unfair-irish-car-tax-law
Adjective. onanistic (comparative more onanistic, superlative most onanistic) Of or pertaining to masturbation (onanism). In a manner which suggests masturbation; hence, fruitless, self-congratulatory, self-absorbed, pointless.
And to this, we can exit polls (and the full day of tedious media speculation that follows before actual results come in). Red C? Dead C more like…
Eu Wide ;
The Brexit Party Did The Best In the Eu .
It really is the party of Democracy and the Freedom that goes with Democracy .
Eu , Please note . Respect Democratic decisions of the People because without this there is No Freedom .
EU elections irrelevant as voting patterns skewed by oversized constituencies and a job that basically involves collecting money for doing nothing, local elections skewed as voters likely to give votes to their neighbours irrelevant of party.
@Cathal:
While you are right about the EU election, that’s has more to do with personalities than parties the results of the 2014 locals were almost identical to the results of the 2016 GE for the three main parties
The biggest winners were the Independent4change with both Clare Daly and Mick Wallace winning seats in Europe. The resistance goes from strength to strength.
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