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71 IS THE new magic number.
The men tasked with getting Fine Gael back into power see 71 as their goal. An agreement with 71 TDs is 71 votes in the Dáil. That means that Labour’s seven deputies would have to side with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to bring down any minority government.
But how likely is it that the two negotiating Simons – Coveney and Harris – will hit their target?
With the Taoiseach in the US for St Patrick’s Day last week, the pair – along with other senior Fine Gael ministers – were left to continue what had been constructive but inconclusive talks to form such a motley crew.
With Fianna Fáil having set out its position that it wasn’t, at this stage, willing to engage with Fine Gael while making its own efforts to form a minority government, ministers Coveney and Harris saw an opening and held further talks with several independent TDs and smaller parties.
The result is that the two Simons and others in the senior echelons of the party now believe they may be able to cobble together a minority government, with perhaps as many as those all-important 71 Dáil votes.
Plus, Fine Gael believes Labour is amenable to supporting a minority government on a case-by-case basis and might abstain on some votes.
Ultimately the aim is, as one source put, “to be in a position where you can’t say we didn’t try to form a government without Fianna Fáil”.
Fine Gael sources believe there is scope to agree with independents and small parties on a few defined common policies to address pressing issues like housing, health and rural Ireland.
Cabinet positions will inevitably come up but not until towards the end of the process. Each party and grouping of independents would have to have some link to government which could mean a ministry or junior ministry for each one.
But who are the independents and small parties?
The 71 ‘Endapendants’, as they’re being dubbed, would include the 5 rural independent TDs led by Denis Naughten, the Independent Alliance, the Green Party, the two Healy-Raes and non-aligned independents such as Katherine Zappone and Maureen O’Sullivan.
Others who may come into play include the SocDems, who have suggested they will support a minority government on an issue-by-issue basis, and other independents like Catherine Connolly, Seamus Healy and Tommy Broughan.
Lengthy talks with some, but not all, of the above will take place tomorrow in Government Buildings and, if they’re fruitful, will continue on Friday.
Last night, Coveney reported much of this to the Fine Gael parliamentary party. There’s only one problem. Few, if any, believe this will actually be possible. As one Fine Gael TD put it:
Simon is the eternal optimist. He sees the good in everyone.
One independent TD involved in the process was even more frank, saying:
Fine Gael are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think they can agree a minority government without the inclusion of Fianna Fáil. That’s not going to happen.
Fine Gael might get to the mid-to-high 60s, but they will not get to 71, many believe. Even among those independents involved in the talks there is little appetite for what the independent TD said is “a temporary little arrangement for six months”.
Publicly and privately, most independent and smaller party TDs involved in these talks believe a stable government can only be formed with the involvement of Fianna Fáil.
“For any government you have to ensure the numbers work. For a stable and viable government, Fianna Fáil, Labour, [and] the Soc Dems all need to engage,” Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, who’ll be involved in tomorrow’s talks, said.
It has to be wider than 71 to have any chance of surviving… if it’s going to work it can’t be a government in the mid 60s. We’ll be making that point.
Where is Fianna Fáil?
For its part, there is unease within Fianna Fáil at the party having failed to filled the vacuum that has existed over the last 10 days. In contrast to Fine Gael, its negotiating team of Michael McGrath, Barry Cowen, Jim O’Callaghan and Charlie McConalogue have been virtually silent in their public remarks.
One Fianna Fáil TD said that the party should have been filling this vacuum by getting some its newly-elected deputies out and about talking about its policy priorities. Instead there has been silence and hardly a word from party leader Micheál Martin.
The talk of Fianna Fáil forming a minority government has faded. One senior TD acknowledged late last week that if Fine Gael formed a minority government then Fianna Fáil would have to accept that and work with its old foe “on an issue-by-issue basis”.
“If we can get our issues through, then we’ll play ball,” they said.
But still Fine Gael has made no approach to Fianna Fáil about this. Its rationale is, as Enda Kenny explained to his own TDs last night, that if Fine Gael were to do this it would immediately collapse talks with the independents and other parties.
Senior Fianna Fáil sources believe that Fine Gael is waiting until after Easter to make any approach. It is ready and willing to engage if and when this happens, as Willie O’Dea told Newstalk earlier.
If Fine Gael want to come and talk to us, then obviously we’ll talk to them.
But right now, as talks on this ‘Endapendant’ government progress, this particular ‘elephant in the room’ – the need for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to talk – is being ignored.
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We will have another election within 12 months. I’d prefer if they just one now.
If they are unwilling to form a government and continue on with this ritualistic dance of “no you ask first” neither of them deserve to be apart of government.
I think we should bite the bullet and vote enda 200%..
Send me your details and I’ll send you a rare BLUE PETER BADGE!! Limited offer, so apply now. ImaFool@gmail.com
Enda , Let Me Go Ya Useless Ball-Ox
Those ‘Independents’ would do well to remember the hugely divisive policies of Fine Gael that fostered such inequality in this Country over the past 5yrs. How easily they forget?
…and lest not forget the Mandarins, the ‘Permanent’ unelected and more specifically, unaccountable Senior Civil Servants…who really run the show (as is proof right now) and they should have a lot of questions to answer for their role in this Country’s financial collapse prior to 2008…but, their decisions are privileged and protected under the law…now there’s one Parliamentary change the incoming regime should seriously consider.
What’s Enda telling that lady in the picture. “.sorry we took away your carers allowance.but we had to do it to pay back the banks.”
I thought he was saying “Gottla gear”, having decided to give up on politics and become a ventriloquist.
Yes and don’t be worrying about the death grant, sure you won’t be needing it when your dead.
Which would be ironic, Ted, since he’s been DoB’s dummy for the last five years.
No he is asking her has the man with 2 pints in he’s hand been in yet?
Kenny , F*ck Off Back Too Mayo
Ted Murray………..so funny.
Anyone else reckon Lowry backing enda Kenny in government would guarantee there would be no movement on the findings of the Moriarty tribunal for another Dail term?
The report was published 5 years ago yesterday.
The statute of limitations is up soon anyway, with mr FG having the most to lose nothing will ever be done about it.
Funny thing about all this. The longer it all goes on the more people will realise we don’t actually need any of them in Government.
The country seems to be running along just fine…its always been the civil servants that run country, the minister just signs on the line.
25% of the nations 65% who voted, only wanted him back.
Even if it was a full one fourth of the country, how is it fair that three quarters of those that didn’t opt for him as their number one party are going to be dictated to by the 25%???
Independents that also stated on record pre-election that they were not going to support him – are now going post-election to support him.
…Talk about more u-turns and double-crossing already – and the government isn’t even formed yet!
They again, are starting as they mean to go on – as usual. So what’s really changed in their antics? Bugger all!
If FG get to come back, there will be no stable government for definite in Ireland.
A lot of people are not going to forget at the next soon possible election, who already looks like they are willing to u-turn on their very own words stated previous.
The independents do this, they are not only ruining the ir own chances next time – they are bring down the rest of any independents that might have some decency in them, by they willing to stick to their previous stated words!
It comes as NO surprise that the Green party might be mixed up in this shenanigans.
They were ran out of office before – look like they will have to be ran out of office again?
Clearly they have learned nothing.
People who don’t vote aren’t allowed a say
What about doing what is in the best interest of the country and not in their best interests ? Either they can form a working government or not.
I voted very simply I do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and I’m am in the AOBE camp and otherwise being poor or disabled you will be crucified by FG and just look st the Tories this week is where Fine Gael got their election manifesto from scew the poor and handicapped
Clearly you are unaware of how the system works.
Very simply, you have no right to vote for a Taoiseach, nor anyone else outside of your constituency. Votes are then pooled to produce the most representative parliament on the face of this earth. Just because it hasn’t worked out how you wanted is no reflection on the system
Your logic is implausible bottom line any vote for FG was a vote for Kenny
Controlling opposition as well as government is the elephant in the room.. FG /FF want to control both as they always have. Conceding opposition to SF is the reason FF will allow FG minority charade until collapse. Self service as always.. The electorate are ever the wiser to these trough seekers and next election might see even bigger losses for the established parties..
Excellent point.
Denis naughton was on radio today and was asked would he push for the emergency department to be reopened in roscommon (which was what he left fg over)and he said no he said rural broadband was the major issue.that just proves his stand was a blatant act of self preservation dreadful characters we elect.
Once FG always FG he only left because Enda didn’t promote him that’s just politics
yes indeed Tim he seen the way he would have looked after promising the retention of the A&E and played the martyr.
Please not another 5 years of these parasites, it’ll be carte blanche on the country
Apparently theres a few elephants in Tallaght too
Sweet Jesus, they still haven’t sorted this out? FFS.
Opposite cheeks of the same arse basically….
Some photo, “a shift’s a shift”
From “Pig in the Kitchen”
to “Horse in the Lift”
to “Elephant in the Room”
….. any snakes LEFT in the grass?
FF and FG get together or call an election. Enough bull about minority governments.
If only it was funny 100 years on since the Rising and there is no proper Government the Irish cannot agree.
Ireland is just full of overpaid little fat , greedy thick unqualified gombeen people filling cronies and their own pockets who claim to be working in the public interest.
Back scratchers the lot of them.
Ireland has done nothing of note in that hundred year. When you travel round the world and see the progress some countries make in give years you see his Ireland lags behind. We can’t make a decision now without checking to see what the EU says or what happens in other countries. We don’t see any trends. We have crap at the top.Cronies and lackies everywhere.
Tommy Broughan isn’t Independent he nominated himself as “Independents 4 change” registered political party.
So Tommy can get an extra 38,000 as leader……..like Eamon Ryan. Ffs
Enda, before you do any deal have a listen to what the 13,000 on the “Unfair Car Tax Law” petition are saying.
Doubtful you will last long unless Reform of your Regressive Taxes is on the list.
https://www.change.org/p/unfair-car-tax-law/c
Fg is obviously not wanted by the majority of people, so anyone supporting them in any way will suffer in future election, so just call GE now.people are suffering on trollies, on the streets, poverty.
Enda looks like he’s trying to hide a boner there.
How, with an 80 year old???
I know, I wouldn’t be able to hide mine either!
Garbage
Looks like he’s trying to snog that old lady, shame on you enda
Fine Gael is still wooing those ‘Endapendants’ – but there’s an ‘elephant in the room’
please God tell me Mary Harney is not back????
We also would have accepted “enda-phant” in the room
Phanting all the way???
As a citizen never had such a blessed period free from listening to those predictably boring elected politicians.The country running as well (or as badly) without you lot Enda
I’m a little confused about issue by issue support. Does that mean if say socdem doesn’t get their way on an issue then the government colapses? or if an Endapendant doesn’t agree then it’s cause a general election? Or that each issue will take months to be decided on with loads of amendments and rewrites? Im genuinely confused by it. Also if FG manage to get in with a minority party who’s to say they won’t just give their new Endapendants lackies (how quickly I reached for the L word) 2 fingers and do what they want. If that happens people will have short memories and no sympathy for any TD who walked into that situation.
Funny that they dont show the picture of Enda with the very old lady , him sitting there with her in her home wrapped up in his fancy warm coat & scarf & this poor old dear , sitting at home in her p.j’s dressing gown an extra coat , hat on her head just to try keep warm!
ENDA IS PUCKERING UP RIGHTLY NOW LOL.
Whatever comes out of this the next government is doomed. It will be in the hands of people who will have their own agendas.
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