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minority report
Fine Gael is still wooing those 'Endapendants' - but there's an 'elephant in the room'
Analysis: Fine Gael is serious about a minority government without Fianna Fáil, but it will eventually have to talk to the old enemy.
9.00pm, 23 Mar 2016
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71 IS THE new magic number.
The men tasked with getting Fine Gael back into power see 71 as their goal. An agreement with 71 TDs is 71 votes in the Dáil. That means that Labour’s seven deputies would have to side with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to bring down any minority government.
But how likely is it that the two negotiating Simons – Coveney and Harris – will hit their target?
With the Taoiseach in the US for St Patrick’s Day last week, the pair – along with other senior Fine Gael ministers – were left to continue what had been constructive but inconclusive talks to form such a motley crew.
With Fianna Fáil having set out its position that it wasn’t, at this stage, willing to engage with Fine Gael while making its own efforts to form a minority government, ministers Coveney and Harris saw an opening and held further talks with several independent TDs and smaller parties.
The result is that the two Simons and others in the senior echelons of the party now believe they may be able to cobble together a minority government, with perhaps as many as those all-important 71 Dáil votes.
Plus, Fine Gael believes Labour is amenable to supporting a minority government on a case-by-case basis and might abstain on some votes.
Ultimately the aim is, as one source put, “to be in a position where you can’t say we didn’t try to form a government without Fianna Fáil”.
Fine Gael sources believe there is scope to agree with independents and small parties on a few defined common policies to address pressing issues like housing, health and rural Ireland.
Cabinet positions will inevitably come up but not until towards the end of the process. Each party and grouping of independents would have to have some link to government which could mean a ministry or junior ministry for each one.
But who are the independents and small parties?
The 71 ‘Endapendants’, as they’re being dubbed, would include the 5 rural independent TDs led by Denis Naughten, the Independent Alliance, the Green Party, the two Healy-Raes and non-aligned independents such as Katherine Zappone and Maureen O’Sullivan.
Others who may come into play include the SocDems, who have suggested they will support a minority government on an issue-by-issue basis, and other independents like Catherine Connolly, Seamus Healy and Tommy Broughan.
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Lengthy talks with some, but not all, of the above will take place tomorrow in Government Buildings and, if they’re fruitful, will continue on Friday.
Last night, Coveney reported much of this to the Fine Gael parliamentary party. There’s only one problem. Few, if any, believe this will actually be possible. As one Fine Gael TD put it:
Simon is the eternal optimist. He sees the good in everyone.
One independent TD involved in the process was even more frank, saying:
Fine Gael are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think they can agree a minority government without the inclusion of Fianna Fáil. That’s not going to happen.
Fine Gael might get to the mid-to-high 60s, but they will not get to 71, many believe. Even among those independents involved in the talks there is little appetite for what the independent TD said is “a temporary little arrangement for six months”.
Publicly and privately, most independent and smaller party TDs involved in these talks believe a stable government can only be formed with the involvement of Fianna Fáil.
“For any government you have to ensure the numbers work. For a stable and viable government, Fianna Fáil, Labour, [and] the Soc Dems all need to engage,” Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, who’ll be involved in tomorrow’s talks, said.
It has to be wider than 71 to have any chance of surviving… if it’s going to work it can’t be a government in the mid 60s. We’ll be making that point.
Where is Fianna Fáil?
For its part, there is unease within Fianna Fáil at the party having failed to filled the vacuum that has existed over the last 10 days. In contrast to Fine Gael, its negotiating team of Michael McGrath, Barry Cowen, Jim O’Callaghan and Charlie McConalogue have been virtually silent in their public remarks.
One Fianna Fáil TD said that the party should have been filling this vacuum by getting some its newly-elected deputies out and about talking about its policy priorities. Instead there has been silence and hardly a word from party leader Micheál Martin.
The talk of Fianna Fáil forming a minority government has faded. One senior TD acknowledged late last week that if Fine Gael formed a minority government then Fianna Fáil would have to accept that and work with its old foe “on an issue-by-issue basis”.
“If we can get our issues through, then we’ll play ball,” they said.
But still Fine Gael has made no approach to Fianna Fáil about this. Its rationale is, as Enda Kenny explained to his own TDs last night, that if Fine Gael were to do this it would immediately collapse talks with the independents and other parties.
Senior Fianna Fáil sources believe that Fine Gael is waiting until after Easter to make any approach. It is ready and willing to engage if and when this happens, as Willie O’Dea told Newstalk earlier.
If Fine Gael want to come and talk to us, then obviously we’ll talk to them.
But right now, as talks on this ‘Endapendant’ government progress, this particular ‘elephant in the room’ – the need for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to talk – is being ignored.
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@Taylor Birkenhead: that is ridiculous. Accepting you were wrong is the first step towards being right. Why continue to be wrong about the same thing when yoh can try and improve as a human being?
@Ciara Baines: Well it’s also mentioned in the article above isn’t it? So it would seem that it’s okay I’m some circumstances doesn’t it? All about context isn’t it?
@Robert Jones Smith: that is a completely intellectually dishonest conflation. To report a word is not to use the word, it is a report of fact. You’re giving the people who use the word undue power with the word by avoiding it. To use the word is wrong, to quote it is fact.
@Robert Jones Smith:
yeesss? and the context here was conor was using the word as a put down to the other fighter. You seemed to be getting worked up a little. another coward with a fake account
@bmul: ‘true colours’ is you showing your own agenda against him pal. McGregor publically supports gay marriage and his coach has a famous gay brother (on social media).
I’m not saying what he said was right and i think he should apologise as hes a public figure. But it was meant as an insult in an MMA fight not a comment on yer mans sexuality.
The same is said up and down the country every day in male competitive sport. It is not the same as a homophobic hate crime and its not right that people are up in arms as if it is one
@Aaron Buckley: “It was meant as an insult in an MAMA fight”. So that’s ok then. Propogating the idea that being gay is a negative thing is ok as long as the target just beat your friend in a competitive sport.
@Karen Lord: read again I said it wasn’t right and he should apologise. I’m just pointing out the context he used it in is important. At no point was he referring to the guys sexuality. McGregor has shown in the past he is not a homophobe and he shouldn’t be branded one from this incident either
@Aaron Buckley: Think he’s just showing his true colours again. He tried to convince the loser that the winner was a ‘f. ‘! I’m curious as to why losing to a ‘f ’ is offered as an explanation of something?
@Madison Underwood: so you are saying McGregor secretly hates gays despite publically supporting gay marriage in the referendum? That doesn’t make sense to me.
What does make sense is he used a very commonly used insult to refer to the opponent as ‘weaker’.
Not a good use of the word either but a lot less derogatory then whats its been blown up to be
@Aaron Buckley: Do you really not understand that using the word in a negative context, regardless of the target’s sexual orientation, reinforces the negativity of the word and it’s connotation?
@Karen Lord: of course I understand the point you are making I just think it’s nit picking as the mans intentions behind saying it should be more important.
Especially when you consider McGregor using ‘f&€got’ in a generic sense like he did can actually help take the power out of it.
You can’t ban or get rid of words in our lexicon.
However as pointed out on the other McGregor article the best possibility is that these words morph into less offensive versions which don’t specifically isolate certain groups.
In this case not targeting the gay community anymore but just general weakness or ineffectualness.
You may find the logic in this hard to handle but McGregor popularising the word as a non gay related insult can ironically be said to be doing the gay community a favour
@Karen Lord: I must confess I used that word extensively throughout my life and in my world it meant “someone who dislikes heavy metal” however I’m now aware it’s offensive and insulting to gay people so I no longer utter it.
@journal why was my comment deleted when it didn’t breach any of the rules? I merely just highlighted a word Conor used.. It wasn’t directed towards anybody! Anyways my point was I hope he comes out with something similar when asked about the incident https://youtu.be/VQuDIiRupyc
@Acedeuce: ah come here, cholo is not even nearly as offensive. First of all it has several different meanings. One is of mixed race, one is the chinos and vest stereotype and another is Diego Someone.
It will come back to get you. You can’t just say racist and homophobic things and get away with it. The world is now too small and too sensitive. He needs to be educated along those lines. Sponsors start dropping him like a bad habit.
@Ray Muller:
Spot on. I’m not a fan of Mc Greger but this is pure nonsense.
Fairytale Of New York has the word in the lyrics. Should we call off Christmas?
@Tweed Cap: Do you really not see the difference between characters using offensive terms in works of artistic expression and a person using it as a stock put down to insult someone?
If you were watching a movie on Martin Luther King and heard repeated use of the n-word would you then believe it acceptable to use it on the street yourself?
Bound to happen eventually. Got away with the racist undertones somehow in that promo tour they did for the Mayweather. Keep the head down – PR containment.
@Shane Gleeson:
I don’t recall Mayweather or any of his massive entourage taking any offence to McGregor’s alleged “racist undertones” so why should anyone else? In fact Mayweather has an 8th foot portrait of McGregor hanging in his home.
@Ray Muller: Mayweather probably/possibly wasn’t offended, but he said he was, and he contributed to the spreading of the ‘dancing monkeys’ accusation, which was 100% false, in a cynical attempt to sell the fight.
@Ray Muller: That’s because he owns Mayweather promotions, who were the fight promoters. So, of course he loves McGregor, he used him to line his own pockets.
@Fiona deFreyne: Offense is taken not given. Why don’t the word police go after all the rappers that use the word n*gger in their songs or the Pogues for using the word fa*got in their Christmas song? Actually fa*got is used a lot by the gay community nowadays as a light hearted joke or decription and causes no harm so why can’t anyone else say it?
@Daniel Donovan: spot on it pisses me off that only black people are allowed to call each other the n word, as soon as a white person says it then its offensive .
@Christy Pop: Dying at this. So “some of your best friends were black” until you pointed this out? Yes. Right. Look out the window there and count all the Red cars you see, good lad. Anyway…
People who are defending his use of the word etc. should go and read Paul Dollery’s piece on the 42.ie. It encapsulates the main reasons why he should apologise for the use of the term in a balanced, non-hysterical way.
@Robert Jones Smith: where did you jump to that conclusion? he agrees with one opinion, and you presume he agrees with all. That has to be fionan/aldric/Gary.
No coincidence that he’s pulled out of them, obviously trying to avoid quizzing over what he was caught saying in that video. Silence in this situation is the worst thing he can do. If he apologised the next day this would be forgotten by now. He probably has some big elaborate apology planned but doesn’t want to waste it by going onto a talk show and having to face It.
What sort of gay person gets offended by the word fagg_ot. Why don’t we just wrap everyone up in cotton wool and not talk to each other that way no one will ever get offended… if anyone disagrees with me il be offended and report you to the journal
It’s encouraging to see so many people here have never used a derogatory term to insult anyone in their lives.
It must be the case if so many of you are berating someone else for their use of a word.
I mean, otherwise it’s just a bunch of people feigning righteous indignation.
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